Israel facing challenge of deterioration in relations with Turkey

by David Harris

JERUSALEM, July 19 (Xinhua) -- Turkey's President Abdullah Gul told reporters, after a meeting with his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas this weekend, that the Palestinians should have a state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital, speaking out against Israel's settlement policy and its stranglehold on the Gaza Strip.

While this type of language is in line with international thinking on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, comments since earlier this year from Turkish leaders are far more critical of Israel, particularly in the wake of Israel's operation in Gaza in January.

"You are killing people," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was heard saying to Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland at the end of January.

Following the comments, Erdogan returned home to a hero's welcome with thousands gathering at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport waving Turkish and Palestinian flags, with many shouting "Turkey is proud of you."

This closeness to the Palestinian cause can not be seen in isolation, but rather in the broader picture of where Turkey sees itself on the world stage.

In November 2008, Turkey's ruling party won sufficient votes in the general election to bid its coalition partners farewell and set a bold new course for Turkish foreign policy. At the time, there was concern in the West that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), with its roots in Islam, would take the country in a direction not supported by Europe and Washington.

For years Ankara talked up its desire to join the European Union (EU). Turkey's candidacy to become a full member of the EU was officially recognized by Brussels in 1999, although its formal application was made 12 years earlier.

However, following a series of knock-backs, Ankara under Erdogan seems to have put EU candidacy increasingly on the back burner. Speaking a day before the European Enlargement ceremony in Dublin on May 1, Erdogan said Europe is not the only option available to Turkey.

As if to get the point across, earlier this month Istanbul hosted the first joint ministerial meeting of the strategic dialogue between Ankara and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Yet Turkey's engagement with the Arab world is nothing new. Indeed, prior to the first Gulf War, Turkey's second trading partner after Germany was Iraq, recalled the editor in chief of the Turkish Daily News, David Judson.

There is a strong economic rationale behind the relationship with the Arab world, particularly in the wake of the ongoing financial crisis, he explained.

Turkey runs huge trade and balance of payments deficits. In recent years, it has managed this because of high levels of foreign direct investment. This turned slow in the past year, making investment from the rich Gulf countries all the more important.

A new foreign minister in Ankara has brought with him a fresh wind. Appointed on May 1, the Arabic-speaking Ahmet Davutoglu is seen as something of a Middle East expert. However, during his time in office thus far, he has made clear that he sees Turkey not just as a player in the European and Middle Eastern arenas, but also on the world stage.

"He's the architect of a new policy which says you have to look towards Islam, Central Asia, and the Turkish communities that are spread around what was the Ottoman Empire. It's about looking at a whole series of spheres and not just the Western sphere," said Israel's former Ambassador to Ankara Alon Liel on Sunday.

On the specifics of the Middle East, the AKP sees the most important single issue in the region as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Because of that, Ankara has linked bilateral Turkish-Israeli issues to the peace process.

According to Liel, as long as the peace process is bogged down, Turkish-Israeli relations will suffer. Should the process reboot, Israel will quickly see a normalization of ties with Turkey.

"In order to change Turkish policy, which is not very pleasant for the current Israeli government, one of two big changes must take place: either a change of the administration in Turkey or the start of an Israeli-Arab peace process. I don't see either of them on the horizon," said Liel.

For Israel, the deterioration in relations is bad news. Bilateral trade reached some 3.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, making Turkey one of Israel's biggest trade partners. However, the bilateral relationship is far more than mere imports and exports.

In recent years Israel and Turkey have carried out several military exercises alongside the United States in the Mediterranean Sea. Israel has also signed many defense deals with Turkey.

Back on the diplomatic track, Ankara has also been trying to bring an end to the Israeli-Syrian conflict. In May 2008, Syria, Turkey and Israel issued a joint statement saying Ankara was brokering indirect talks between the long-time enemies.

However, it appears that particular line of communication has dried up -- not the fault of the Turks. Since Benjamin Netanyahu became Israeli prime minister in late March, Ankara has said it is prepared to act as liaison once again, but as far as the media knows, there has been no resumption of talks.

Judson believes Turkey's current peacemaking role in the region came about to a large extent because it was asked to get involved by the United States and other Western powers.

"Turkey was 'pulled' into this role by Europe and the United States as much as she sought to 'push' herself in," said Judson.

The trend at the moment though is clear -- there is a definite deterioration in bilateral Israeli-Turkish relations in part because of a perceived Israeli failure to address the peace process more seriously and also because of the new direction of Turkish foreign policy.

As Liel said, it will take something pretty significant to get things back on track in the short term.